一、MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT（论文文献综述）
黄亚[1]（2019）在《三峡水库区域水文气候效应及其未来趋势预测》文中指出三峡工程是当今世界上最大的水利枢纽工程之一,具有防洪、发电、航运、养殖、供水等综合效益,对库区及长江中下游地区的经济发展和生态状况具有重要作用。自2003年水库蓄水以来,库区形成一个长600多km,宽1～2km,总面积达1084km2的人工湖泊。在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,库区及上游流域自然状态和地表水文情势均发生了明显变化,这对流域水资源综合利用与管理、防洪和抗旱带来了新的挑战。定量分析全球气候变化和水库区域气候效应对库区及上游流域水文气候的影响,对于深入理解大型水利工程区域水文气候效应与作用机制,研究流域未来气象灾害发生规律、灾害预警以及水资源高效利用等方面具有重要的科学意义和应用价值。本论文的主要研究目标是研究全球气候变化和三峡水库区域气候效应综合影响下的长江上游流域水文过程变化规律,揭示水库蓄水对陆面水文过程和区域气候的作用机制。围绕上述研究目标,论文以三峡库区及上游流域为研究对象,在区域气候模式参数方案敏感性评估、区域气候效应与未来极端气候、陆-气耦合模拟系统构建及应用、径流过程预测等方面展开研究。研究取得的主要结论及创新成果包括:（1）基于多目标函数秩评分法综合评估区域气候模式（Reg CM4）的模拟能力,对比分析不同积云对流参数化方案和陆面过程方案的选取对长江上游流域模拟性能的影响。72组混合参数化方案对长江上游流域气温具有较好的模拟性能,但对降水的模拟性能较差。降水对积云对流参数化方案具有较强的敏感性,Kain-Fritsch方案对长江上游降水的综合模拟性能最优,而生物圈-大气圈传输方案（Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme,简称BATS）对长江上游气温的综合模拟性能最优。在Kian-Fritsch积云对流方案下,与BATS陆面方案相比,CLM陆面方案具有更高的土壤湿度和感热通量以及更少的蒸散发和降水量,直接导致CLM方案模拟的地表气温偏高。CLM方案中偏暖的地表气温和偏少的蒸散发促使模拟水汽输送能力偏弱,导致CLM方案模拟的降水偏少。同时,CLM方案相对偏干的大气在一定程度上也增加了到达地表的净辐射通量,改变了地表能量收支,进而造成CLM与BATS模拟的地表气温差异扩大。（2）基于Reg CM4分析三峡水库的区域气候效应及其对库区极端降水的影响,揭示三峡水库区域气候效应作用机制。在湖泊方案L1情景下,除春季外,其他季节库区气温均有所上升,年平均气温升温达到0.12℃;年平均降水减少0.28mm/day,其中春季和夏季的减少程度最大;蒸发在秋季和冬季增加,在春季和夏季减少,全年平均增加0.04mm/day。根据MSE、CAPE以及CIN等指标变化差异表明,在水库水面冷却作用影响下,库区白天对流活动受到抑制,导致库区内降水显着减少,进而影响极端降水;气温的变化主要是水库与周围陆地之间进行了大量的能量交换,对区域年内能量收支起到了调节的作用;蒸发变化主要受CLM4.5湖泊模型中湖面0.05m处的水温与2m高度气温之间的温度梯度大小及方向的季节性变化影响,同时还受浅层水温与深层水温的温度梯度大小影响;在湖泊方案L2情景下,弱降水事件受库区气候效应的影响程度明显大于强降水事件。库区内弱降水事件(50th以下)的强度和频次均显着下降;强降水事件(90th以上)的频次略有减少,但其对年降水量的贡献及强度均略有增加。水库区域气候效应对降水的影响集中在20km以内,对未来2021-2050年的各项极端降水指数年际变化趋势没有明显影响。（3）基于Reg CM4、可变下渗容量模型（Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,简称VIC模型）以及基于分位数映射法（Quantile mapping method,简称QM法）的气候要素校正模型构建长江上游流域单向陆气耦合模拟系统。基于广义似然不确定性估计方法（Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation,简称GLUE）对VIC水文模型参数进行敏感性分析,结果表明可变下渗能力曲线形状参数B和第二层土层厚度D2为模型中的敏感性参数。基于GLUE法计算的95%置信区间基本涵盖验证期各站点的实测径流量,表明构建的VIC大尺度分布式水文模型对长江上游径流的模拟具有一定的可行性。VIC模型能够较好的模拟长江上游流域的日尺度和月尺度水文过程和流量峰现时间,在校准期和验证期的纳什系数均在0.9以上,相对误差在±10%以内。VIC模型对流域丰水年的模拟性能优于枯水年,对丰水年的年径流总量存在低估,而对枯水年的年径流总量存在高估。基于分位数映射法构建了气候要素订正模型,并对基于单分布和混合分布的分位数映射法订正性能进行评估,根据均方根误差、和方差、相关系数等评估指标,均表明混合分布分位数映射法对降水的订正效果优于单分布。（4）基于陆气耦合模拟系统模拟长江上游流域未来气候和水文过程,定量分析气候变化和库区气候效应对径流过程及径流组分的影响。Reg CM4动力降尺度预测结果表明,与基准期1971-2000年相比,未来2021-2050年长江上游流域东部趋于暖干,而西部区域暖湿,流域总径流减少约4.1%～5%,融雪径流减少约36%～39%,极端径流略有降低。径流减少主要在流域东南部,降水的减少以及蒸发量的增加是导致该地区径流大量减少的直接原因。水库区域气候效应对总径流的影响程度与全球气候变化的影响程度相当,并影响径流的小尺度周期。在典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways,简称RCPs）的未来RCP 4.5情景下,湖泊方案L1和湖泊方案L2中水库区域气候效应使得流域年径流总量分别增加了2.9%和3.7%,极端径流略有增加,表明水库区域气候效应在一定程度上缓解了气候变化对径流的不利影响。水库区域气候效应对降水的空间格局及结构的改变是导致流域年径流量变化的主要因素。
Zhiyong MENG,Fuqing ZHANG,Dehai LUO,Zhemin TAN,Juan FANG,Jianhua SUN,Xueshun SHEN,Yunji ZHANG,Shuguang WANG,Wei HAN,Kun ZHAO,Lei ZHU,Yongyun HU,Huiwen XUE,Yaping MA,Lijuan ZHANG,Ji NIE,Ruilin ZHOU,Sa LI,Hongjun LIU,Yuning ZHU[2]（2019）在《Review of Chinese atmospheric science research over the past 70 years: Synoptic meteorology》文中研究指明Synoptic meteorology is a branch of meteorology that uses synoptic weather observations and charts for the diagnosis,study,and forecasting of weather.Weather refers to the specific state of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface during a short period of time.The spatial distribution of meteorological elements in the atmosphere can be represented by a variety of transient weather phenomena,which are caused by weather systems of different spatial and temporal scales.Weather is closely related to people’s life,and its development and evolution have always been the focus of atmospheric scientific research and operation.The development of synoptic meteorology is closely related to the development of observation systems,dynamical theories and numerical models.In China,observation networks have been built since the early 1950 s.Up to now,a comprehensive meteorological observation systembased on ground,air and space has been established.In particular,the development of a new generation of dense radar networks,the development of the Fengyun satellite series and the implementation of a series of large field experiments have brought our understanding of weather from large-scale environment to thermal dynamics,cloud microphysical structure and evolution characteristics of meso and micro-scale weather systems.The development of observation has also promoted the development of theory,numerical model and simulation.In the early days,China mainly used foreign numerical models.Lately,China has developed numerical model systems with independent intellectual property rights.Based on the results of high-resolution numerical simulations,in-depth understanding of the initiation and evolution mechanism and predictability of weather at different scales has been obtained.Synoptic meteorology has gradually changed from an initially independent development to a multidisciplinary approach,and the interaction between weather and the change of climate and environment has become a hot and frontier topic in atmospheric science.This paper reviews the important scientific and technological achievements made in China over the past 70 years in the fields of synoptic meteorology based on the literatures in China and abroad,from six aspects respectively including atmospheric dynamics,synoptic-scale weather,typhoon and tropical weather,severe convective weather,numerical weather prediction and data assimilation,weather and climate,atmospheric physics and atmospheric environment.
Xiaohan LI,Xindong PENG[3]（2018）在《Long-Term Integration of a Global Non-Hydrostatic Atmospheric Model on an Aqua Planet》文中研究表明A global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model, i.e., GRAPESYY（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System on the Yin–Yang grid）, with a semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian（SISL） dynamical core developed on the Yin–Yang grid was coupled with the physical parameterization package of the operational version of GRAPES. A3.5-yr integration was carried out on an aqua planet to assess the numerical performance of this non-hydrostatic model relative to other models. Specific aspects of precipitation and general circulation under two different sea surface temperature（SST） conditions（CONTROL and FLAT） were analyzed. The CONTROL SST peaked at the equator.The FLAT SST had its maximum gradient at about 20° latitude, giving a broad equatorial SST maximum in the tropics and flat profile approaching the equator. The tropical precipitation showed different propagation features in the CONTROL and FLAT simulations. The CONTROL showed tropical precipitation bands moving eastward with some envelopes of westward convective-scale disturbance. Less organized westward-propagating rainfall cells and bands were seen in the FLAT and the propagation of the tropical wave varied with the SST gradient. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone（ITCZ）, Hadley cell, and westerly jet core were weaker and more poleward as the SST profile flattened from the CONTROL to FLAT. The climatological structures simulated by GRAPESYY, such as the distribution of precipitation and the large-scale circulation, fell within the bounds from other models. The stronger ITCZ precipitation, accompanied with stronger Hadley cells and convective heating in the CONTROL simulation, may be summed up as a result of stronger parameterized convection and the non-hydrostatic effects in GRAPESYY. In addition, mechanism of the zonal mean circulation maintaining is analyzed for the different SST patterns referring the transient eddy flux.
张飞民[4]（2017）在《边界层垂直混合和陆面参数化对登陆飓风数值模拟的影响研究》文中提出登陆热带气旋（飓风或台风）是重要的灾害性天气之一,常伴随大风和强降水,对沿岸及内陆地区造成严重危害。一般来讲,热带气旋登陆后会迅速减弱并消亡;但是,少数热带气旋向中高纬地区移动时,在有利条件下会维持较长的时间甚至再度发展。提高登陆热带气旋及其在内陆地区演变的预报水平是数值天气预报的难点和前沿性科学问题,理解热带气旋在登陆过程中热动力结构的变化特征是提高数值天气预报水平的关键。迄今为止,国际上大部分对热带气旋演变的研究以气旋在洋面的发展为主,针对登陆气旋的研究相对较少。热带气旋边界层及其与下垫面的相互作用在登陆热带气旋的结构演变中扮演着重要的角色,因此,探索并改进数值模式中影响登陆热带气旋的关键性边界层和陆面物理参数化过程,对于改善登陆飓风的预报有重要的科学意义。本文选择了发生在美国中部地区的两类典型登陆热带气旋作为研究对象。第一类个例选择发生在2005年的三次大西洋登陆飓风Dennis、Katrina和Rita,和大多数登陆热带气旋相同,这三个飓风在登陆后均迅速减弱并消亡;第二类个例选择发生在2015年的登陆热带风暴Bill,该热带风暴虽然在登陆阶段强度较弱,但它在登陆后的衰减过程很慢并在陆地上维持了较长的时间。本文利用美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）的区域飓风业务与研究系统模式HWRF（Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting）,通过对现有边界层参数化方案的修改,数值模拟对陆面参数化方案的敏感性试验以及模式初始场土壤湿度对登陆热带气旋的预报影响等一系列数值模拟试验,研究了影响登陆热带气旋演变和发展的边界层及陆面参数化中的关键性过程,并探讨了登陆热带气旋的热动力结构变化特征。得到了如下主要结论:边界层中的垂直混合过程决定着飓风与下垫面和环境场的动量、热量和水汽等的交换,因此边界层垂直混合对登陆飓风的演变有着决定性的作用。通过修改HWRF模式中边界层垂直混合强度,本文首先分析了边界层垂直混合作用对登陆飓风Dennis、Katrina和Rita的影响及相应的结构演变特征。结果表明,登陆飓风的模拟对边界层内的垂直混合非常的敏感。当飓风边界层内的垂直混合增强时,其登陆后的减弱过程较为明显,相应的飓风路径、强度和降水的模拟也得到了有效的改善。反之,减弱飓风边界层内的垂直混合则会导致模式高估登陆飓风的强度,使模拟结果变差。进一步的诊断分析表明,增加边界层内的垂直混合会导致飓风边界层内的垂直风切变减弱,虚位温垂直梯度增强,从而破坏飓风边界层内的湍流动能,进而有效地减弱了登陆飓风的强度。换言之,飓风边界层内的强垂直混合作用使飓风边界层大气趋于稳定,从而抑制了飓风在陆地上的维持。边界层垂直混合作用和边界层垂直湍流扩散系数的参数化有密切关系。本文对HWRF模式中边界层垂直湍流扩散系数Km和Kh的计算方案进行了修正,Km和Kh参数分别决定了大气中动量和热量、水汽的垂直传输。结果表明,修正后的边界层垂直湍流扩散系数可以有效地增强陆地上飓风内部的垂直混合,而对飓风外部环境场的垂直混合影响不大。由于HWRF边界层参数化中Kh参数的估计主要取决于Km参数的估计,表明改进HWRF模式边界层参数化中的Km参数的计算是改善登陆飓风预报的关键。由于HWRF中的原方案使飓风在很大程度上延续了其在海洋上的边界层垂直混合特征,因此造成飓风在登陆过程中衰减不明显;本文提出的修正方案计算的Km参数可以有效地增大陆地上飓风边界层内的垂直混合,使飓风在登陆过程中有效地减弱,从而改善了登陆飓风的路径、强度和降水的预报。一般而言,飓风边界层内的强垂直混合作用导致飓风在陆地上的强度减弱,飓风内部干冷空气增强,飓风半径及其眼墙的垂直坡度增大;此外,飓风边界层内的强垂直混合还会导致飓风暖心结构、旋转风结构和二级环流减弱,边界层高度降低,飓风云带逐渐松散并远离飓风中心。本文的研究深化了飓风边界层垂直混合作用对登陆飓风热动力结构演变过程的认识。边界层的发展和消亡过程和地面感潜热的变化有密切的关系,此外,地面感潜热对飓风的维持和演变也具有重要的影响。本文在以上研究基础上,以登陆热带风暴Bill（2015）为例,对比分析了SLAB和NOAH两种不同陆面参数化方案对该风暴在内陆地区演变的影响。结果表明,相比SLAB方案,运用NOAH方案模拟的风暴强度较弱,对此次登陆风暴的强度和降水结构有较好的模拟能力,尤其在风暴转向美国中部大平原并和中纬度西风相互作用过程中;此外,由于使用NOAH方案模拟的风暴具有较为明显的旋转和对称性结构,使风暴周围向东的引导气流减弱,从而有效地改善了风暴在内陆地区的移动路径。通过诊断分析表明,相比SLAB方案,风暴内部边界层的垂直混合在使用NOAH方案的模拟中较强,导致登陆风暴强度较弱;风暴环境场中地表温度、地面感潜热通量和边界层垂直混合在使用NOAH方案的模拟中存在显着的昼夜交替变化特征。尤其是白天风暴环境场中地表温度升高所伴随的强烈的非绝热加热作用造成了强烈的向上输送的地面感潜热通量;同时,地表温度的上升也使风暴外部环境场的边界层大气趋于不稳定状态,从而使风暴外部环境场的边界层高度和垂直混合增强。因此,白天地表的非绝热加热作用使地表感潜热对风暴外部环境场的能量输送增强,从而对风暴在陆地上的维持产生积极的作用。在夜间,由于地表逐渐冷却,造成风暴环境场的边界层趋于稳定状态,此时,风暴环境场的边界层高度降低、湍流动能减弱、边界层垂直混合减弱、地面感潜热通量减小,不利于风暴在陆地上的维持。模式土壤湿度对地表感潜热的模拟和对流的发展、演变具有重要的意义。本文在比较3种不同土壤湿度资料的基础上,通过在模拟初始时刻增加土壤湿度,进一步讨论了模式初始土壤湿度对登陆风暴Bill（2015）的模拟影响。结果表明,增加初始时刻的土壤湿度使风暴在登陆过程中的强度减弱,主要是因为增加土壤湿度使风暴内部边界层内的垂直混合增大以及风暴外部环境场的地表非绝热加热效应减弱造成的。本文的模拟结果揭示出数值模式中陆面参数化方案和初始土壤湿度是影响登陆飓风预报的关键因素,白天飓风环境场的非绝热加热效应有利于飓风在陆地上的维持;土壤湿度的增加不仅使飓风内部边界层垂直混合作用增强,同时还导致飓风环境场地表非绝热加热效应减弱,不利于飓风在陆地上的维持。
唐细坝,平凡,罗哲贤[5]（2016）在《中尺度模式积云参数化方案的改进及其在暴雨模拟中的应用》文中认为本文针对中国暴雨发生发展天气特征,改进和发展了一种适合于描述东亚暴雨的中尺度积云参数化方案.首先基于近年来（1990—2010）江淮流域汛期降水合成分析的基础上,诊断出组织化对流降水环境的动力参数;其次利用该动力参数作为动力控制条件,改进了Kain-Fritsch Eta中尺度积云对流参数化方案;最后利用改进的中尺度积云参数化方案对梅雨期暴雨、华南前汛期暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,结果表明:改进后的中尺度积云参数化方案对上述两次暴雨过程的落区及强度的模拟,均有明显改进.
刘琨,陈起英,孙健[6]（2015）在《Modification of Cumulus Convection and Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the GRAPES Global Model》文中指出Cumulus convection is a key linkage between hydrological cycle and large-scale atmospheric circulation.Cumulus parameterization scheme is an important component in numerical weather and climate modeling studies.In the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System（GRAPES）,turbulent mixing and diffusion approach is applied in its shallow convection scheme.This method overestimates the vertical transport of heat and moisture fluxes but underestimates cloud water mixing ratio over the region of stratocumulus clouds.As a result,the simulated low stratocumulus clouds are less than observations.To overcome this problem,a mass flux method is employed in the shallow convection scheme to replace the original one.Meanwhile,the deep convection scheme is adjusted correspondingly.This modification is similar to that in the US NCEP Global Forecast System（GFS）,which uses the simplified Arakawa Schubert Scheme（SAS）.The planetary boundary layer scheme（PBL） is also revised by considering the coupling between the PBL and stratocumulus clouds.With the modification of both the cumulus and PBL schemes,the GRAPES simulation of shallow convective heating rate becomes more reasonable;total amounts of stratocumulus clouds simulated over the eastern Pacific and their vertical structure are more consistent with observations;the underestimation of stratocumulus clouds simulated by original schemes is less severe with the revised schemes.Precipitation distribution in the tropics becomes more reasonable and spurious precipitation is effectively suppressed.The westward extension and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high simulated with the revised schemes are more consistent with Final Operational Global Analysis（FNL） than that simulated with the original schemes.The statistical scores for the global GRAPES forecast are generally improved with the revised schemes,especially for the simulation of geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and winds in the tropics.Root mean square errors（RMSEs） decrease in the lower and upper troposphere with the revised schemes.The above results indicate that with the revised cumulus and PBL schemes,model biases in the tropics decrease and the global GRAPES performance is greatly improved.
李崇银,凌健,宋洁,潘静,田华,陈雄[7]（2014）在《Research Progress in China on the Tropical Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation》文中认为Tropical intraseasonal oscillation（including the Madden-Julian oscillation） is an important element of the atmospheric circulation system.The activities and anomalies of tropical intraseasonal oscillations affect weather and climate both inside and outside the tropical region.The study of these phenomena therefore represents one of the frontiers of atmospheric sciences.This review aims to synthesize and summarize studies of intraseasonal oscillation（ISO） by Chinese scientists within the last 5-10 years.We focus particularly on ISO’s mechanisms,its numerical simulations（especially the impacts of diabatic heating profiles）,relationships and interactions with ENSO（especially over the western Pacific）,impacts on tropical cyclone genesis and tracks over the northwestern Pacific,and influences on the onset and activity of the South and East Asian monsoons（especially rainfall over China）.Among these,focuses of ongoing research and unresolved issues related to ISO are also discussed.
WANG ZiQian,DUAN AnMin,WU GuoXiong[8]（2014）在《Impacts of boundary layer parameterization schemes and air-sea coupling on WRF simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon》文中提出The planetary boundary layer（PBL）scheme in the regional climate model（RCM）has a significant impact on the interactions and exchanges of moisture,momentum,and energy between land,ocean,and atmosphere;however,its uncertainty will cause large systematic biases of RCM.Based on the four different PBL schemes（YSU,ACM2,Boulac,and MYJ）in Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF）model,the impacts of these schemes on the simulation of circulation and precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM）are investigated.The simulated results of the two local turbulent kinetic energy（TKE）schemes,Boulac and MYJ,are more consistent with the observations than those in the two nonlocal closure schemes,YSU and ACM2.The former simulate more reasonable low-level southwesterly flow over East China and west pacific subtropical high（WPSH）than the latter.As to the modeling of summer monsoon precipitation,both the spatial distributions and temporal evolutions from Boulac and MYJ are also better than those in YSU and ACM2 schemes.In addition,through the comparison between YSU and Boulac experiments,the differences from the results of EASM simulation are more obvious over the oceanic area.In the experiments with the nonlocal schemes YSU and ACM2,the boundary layer mixing processes are much stronger,which lead to produce more sea surface latent heat flux and enhanced convection,and finally induce the overestimated precipitation and corresponding deviation of monsoon circulation.With the further study,it is found that the absence of air-sea interaction in WRF may amplify the biases caused by PBL scheme over the ocean.Consequently,there is a reduced latent heat flux over the sea surface and even more reasonable EASM simulation,if an ocean model coupled into WRF.
于恩涛,王会军,郜永祺,孙建奇[9]（2011）在《Impacts of Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation over China》文中指出By using the Betts-Miller-Janji’c,Grell-Devenyi,and Kain-Fritsch cumulus convective parameterization schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model,long time simulations from 2000 to 2009 are conducted to investigate the impacts of different cumulus convective parameterization schemes on summermonsoon precipitation simulation over China.The results show that all the schemes have the capability to reasonably reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of summer monsoon precipitation and the corresponding background circulation.The observed north-south shift of monsoon rain belt is also well simulated by the three schemes.Detailed comparison indicates that the Grell-Devenyi scheme gives a better performance than the others.Deficiency in simulated water vapor transport is one possible reason for the precipitation simulation bias.
高艳红,彭雯,Hyun-Suk KANG,Duan eWALISER[10]（2011）在《Assessment of Dynamic Downscaling of the Extreme Rainfall over East Asia Using a Regional Climate Model》文中进行了进一步梳理This study investigates the capability of the dynamic downscaling method （DDM） in an East Asian climate study for June 1998 using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model （MM5）.Sensitivity experiments show that MM5 results at upper atmospheric levels cannot match reanalyses data,but the results show consistent improvement in simulating moisture transport at low levels.The downscaling ability for precipitation is regionally dependent.During the monsoon season over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon season over North China,the DDM cannot match observed precipitation.Over Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau （TP）,where there is high topography,the DDM shows better performance than reanalyses.Simulated monsoon evolution processes over East Asia,however,are much closer to observational data than reanalyses.The convection scheme has a substantial impact on extreme rainfall over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon over North China,but only a marginal contribution for Northwest China and the TP.Land surface parameterizations affect the locations and pattern of rainfall bands.The 10-day re-initialization in this study shows some improvement in simulated precipitation over some sub-regions but with no obvious improvement in circulation.The setting of the location of lateral boundaries （LLB） westward improves performance of the DDM.Including the entire TP in the western model domain improves the DDM performance in simulating precipitation in most sub-regions.In addition,a seasonal simulation demonstrates that the DDM can also obtain consistent results,as in the June case,even when another two months consist of no strong climate/weather events.
二、MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT（论文开题报告）
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三、MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT（论文提纲范文）
（1）三峡水库区域水文气候效应及其未来趋势预测（论文提纲范文）
| 摘要 |
| ABSTRACT |
| 第一章 前言 |
| 1.1 研究背景 |
| 1.2 研究意义 |
| 1.3 国内外相关研究进展 |
| 1.3.1 水库气候效应研究进展 |
| 1.3.2 陆气耦合模拟研究进展 |
| 1.3.3 三峡水库气候效应研究进展 |
| 1.3.4 相关研究中存在的问题 |
| 1.4 主要研究内容和技术路线 |
| 1.5 拟解决的关键科学问题 |
| 1.6 小结 |
| 第二章 区域气候模式物理参数化方案性能评估 |
| 2.1 引言 |
| 2.2 区域气候模式RegCM简介 |
| 2.2.1 RegCM系列模式发展历史 |
| 2.2.2 RegCM4基本物理过程 |
| 2.3 RegCM4的模拟评估及参数化方案敏感性分析 |
| 2.3.1 试验设计与数据 |
| 2.3.2 多目标函数评分法 |
| 2.3.3 综合评估结果 |
| 2.3.4 不同陆面参数化方案对RegCM4气候模拟的影响 |
| 2.4 本章小结 |
| 第三章 三峡水库区域气候效应及作用机制 |
| 3.1 引言 |
| 3.2 三峡库区基本概况 |
| 3.3 试验设计与数据使用 |
| 3.3.1 模型配置与试验设计 |
| 3.3.2 观测数据预处理 |
| 3.3.3 水汽通量和水汽通量散度 |
| 3.4 三峡库区气候效应评估 |
| 3.4.1 三峡库区气候模拟性能评估 |
| 3.4.2 三峡水库对气温和感热的影响 |
| 3.4.3 三峡水库对降水和蒸发的影响 |
| 3.4.4 三峡水库对水分迁移和环流的影响 |
| 3.5 三峡库区气候效应作用机制 |
| 3.5.1 降水变化主要驱动因素 |
| 3.5.2 温度变化主要驱动因素 |
| 3.5.3 蒸发变化主要驱动因素 |
| 3.6 本章小结 |
| 第四章 气候变化下三峡水库区域气候效应对极端降水的影响 |
| 4.1 引言 |
| 4.2 试验设计与方法 |
| 4.2.1 试验设计与数据使用 |
| 4.2.2 极端降水评估方法 |
| 4.2.3 趋势分析及显着性检验 |
| 4.2.4 对流活动分析 |
| 4.3 气候变化下水库区域气候效应对极端降水的影响 |
| 4.3.1 库区降水模拟性能评估 |
| 4.3.2 气候变化对库区极端降水的影响 |
| 4.3.3 水库区域气候效应对极端降水的影响 |
| 4.4 水库区域气候效应对极端降水变化的作用机制 |
| 4.5 本章小结 |
| 第五章 三峡库区及其上游流域陆气耦合模拟系统构建 |
| 5.1 VIC水文模型构建 |
| 5.1.1 VIC水文模型发展概况 |
| 5.1.2 VIC模型基本原理 |
| 5.1.3 VIC水文模型基础数据 |
| 5.1.4 VIC水文模型方案配置 |
| 5.2 气候模式动力降尺度误差订正 |
| 5.2.1 混合分布分位数映射法 |
| 5.2.2 基于遗传算法的参数寻优 |
| 5.2.3 分位数映射法订正性能评估 |
| 5.3 三峡库区及其上游流域陆气耦合模拟系统 |
| 5.4 本章小结 |
| 第六章 气候变化下三峡水库区域气候效应对流域径流的影响 |
| 6.1 引言 |
| 6.2 试验设计、数据及方法 |
| 6.2.1 试验设计与数据 |
| 6.2.2 周期分析 |
| 6.3 CMIP5降尺度订正评估 |
| 6.4 气候变化下库区及上游流域降水和气温演变趋势 |
| 6.4.1 降水未来演变趋势 |
| 6.4.2 气温未来演变趋势 |
| 6.5 气候变化下三峡水库区域气候效应对径流的影响 |
| 6.5.1 陆气耦合模拟历史流量过程验证 |
| 6.5.2 气候变化对流域径流的影响 |
| 6.5.3 水库区域气候效应对流域径流的影响 |
| 6.6 本章小结 |
| 第七章 总结与展望 |
| 7.1 主要研究成果 |
| 7.2 创新点 |
| 7.3 研究中的不足和未来工作展望 |
| 参考文献 |
| 致谢 |
| 攻读博士学位期间的科研成果 |
（2）Review of Chinese atmospheric science research over the past 70 years: Synoptic meteorology（论文提纲范文）
| 1. Introduction |
| 2. Atmospheric dynamics |
| 2.1 Scale theory of atmospheric adaptation processes |
| 2.2 Planetary wave dynamics |
| 2.3 Atmospheric circulation and its abnormal phe-nomena |
| 3. Synoptic-scale weather |
| 3.1 Front |
| 3.2 Jets |
| 3.3 Low vortex |
| 3.4 Rainstorms in the pre-summer rainy season of South China |
| 3.5 Cold wave,freezing rain and snow |
| 4. Typhoon and tropical weather |
| 4.1 Typhoon and tropical atmospheric dynamics |
| 4.1.1 Typhoon |
| 4.1.2 Subtropical high |
| 4.1.3 Tropical wave and MJO |
| 4.2 Observation on typhoon and tropical atmospheric processes |
| 4.3 Numerical forecasting techniques for typhoon and tropical atmospheric processes |
| 5. Severe convective weather |
| 5.1 Observation |
| 5.2 Characteristics and mechanism of convection in-itiation and development |
| 5.3 Forecast and early warning |
| 6. Numerical weather prediction and data as-similation |
| 6.1 Research progress on numerical weather predic-tion model |
| 6.2 Development and application of operation numer-ical weather prediction |
| 6.3 Research progress on data assimilation method |
| 6.4 Development of data assimilation system for the operational numerical prediction model |
| 7. Interdisciplinary studies on weather and cli-mate,atmospheric physics and environment |
| 7.1 Long-term evolution of weather with climate change |
| 7.2 Response of Extreme Precipitation to Future Cli-mate Warming |
| 7.3 Response of long-term variation characteristics of precipitation and thunderstorm to air pollution |
| 7.4 Response of short-time variation of precipitation and thunderstorm to air pollution |
| 8. Summary |
（4）边界层垂直混合和陆面参数化对登陆飓风数值模拟的影响研究（论文提纲范文）
| Acknowledgements |
| 中文摘要 |
| Abstract |
| Chapter 1 Introduction |
| 1.1 An overview of landfalling hurricanes |
| 1.2 Observation studies of the hurricane boundary layer |
| 1.3 Modeling studies of the hurricane boundary layer |
| 1.4 Objectives and structure of this dissertation |
| Chapter 2 Description of the HWRF Model, PBL Parameterization, Land Surface Scheme, Data and Hurricane Cases |
| 2.1 Description of HWRF model |
| 2.2 Description of the PBL scheme in HWRF |
| 2.2.1 Surface layer parameterization |
| 2.2.2 Boundary layer parameterization |
| 2.3 Description of the land surface scheme in HWRF |
| 2.4 Description of data and hurricane cases |
| Chapter 3 Effects of Boundary Layer Vertical Mixing on the Evolutionof Hurricanes over Land~10 |
| 3.1 Experiment design: |
| 3.2 Sensitivity of simulated hurricanes to vertical mixing in PBL |
| 3.2.1 Track and intensity |
| 3.2.2 Quantitative precipitation forecasts |
| 3.2.3 Large-scale environment |
| 3.2.4 Effects on the evolution of hurricane structures |
| 3.3 Concluding remarks |
| Chapter 4 Effects of Vertical Eddy Diffusivity Parameterization on theEvolution of Landfalling Hurricanes~10 |
| 4.1 Experiment design |
| 4.2 Simulation results |
| 4.2.1 Track and intensity |
| 4.2.2 Evolution of hurricanes and synoptic environments |
| 4.2.3 Precipitation |
| 4.3 Effects on vortex structure |
| 4.3.1 Effects on thermodynamic and kinematic structures |
| 4.3.2 Effects on convective rainbands |
| 4.4 Discussion |
| 4.5 Concluding remarks |
| Chapter 5 Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of a Post-landfall Stormto the Land Surface Parameterization |
| 5.1 Experiment design |
| 5.2 Simulation results |
| 5.2.1 Track and intensity |
| 5.2.2 Evolution of the synoptic environments of the storm |
| 5.2.3 Quantitative precipitation forecasts |
| 5.3 Comparison of surface enthalpy fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL |
| 5.4 Impacts on vortex structures and environmental flows |
| 5.5 Concluding remarks |
| Chapter 6 The Impacts of Initial Soil Moisture on the NumericalSimulation of a Post-landfall Storm |
| 6.1 Experiment design |
| 6.2 Simulation results |
| 6.2.1 Track and intensity |
| 6.2.2 Quantitative precipitation forecasts |
| 6.3 Impacts on vortex structures |
| 6.4 Discussion |
| 6.5 Concluding remarks |
| Chapter 7 Summary of Conclusions |
| 7.1 Summary |
| 7.2 Limitations and future research |
| Bibliography |
| 个人简历 |
| 在学期间的研究成果 |
| 致谢 |
（5）中尺度模式积云参数化方案的改进及其在暴雨模拟中的应用（论文提纲范文）
| 1 引言 |
| 2 积云对流参数化目标方案的选取 |
| 3 有组织对流的动力因子诊断 |
| 4 积云对流参数化方案的改进 |
| 5 改进后的积云参数化方案在暴雨模拟中的检验 |
| 5.1 资料与方法 |
| 5.2改进后参数化方案与原方案对梅雨锋西端暴雨模拟的比较性研究 |
| 5.2.1 降水过程简介 |
| 5.2.2 试验方案设计 |
| 5.2.3模拟结果比较分析 |
| (1)降水量 |
| (2)降水时间演变 |
| (3)视热源Q1和视水汽汇Q2的高度-时间剖面 |
| 5.3 改进后参数化方案与原方案对华南前汛期暴雨模拟的比较性研究 |
| 5.3.1 降水过程简介 |
| 5.3.2 试验方案设计 |
| 5.3.3模拟结果比较分析 |
| (1)降水量 |
| (2)降水时间演变 |
| (3)视热源Q1和视水汽汇Q2的高度-时间剖面 |
| 6 结论和讨论 |
（6）Modification of Cumulus Convection and Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the GRAPES Global Model（论文提纲范文）
| 1. Introduction |
| 2. Modification of the cumulus and PBL sch-emes in the GRAPES global model |
| 2.1 Convection |
| 2.1.1 Shallow convection scheme |
| 2.1.2 Deep convection scheme |
| 2.2 Boundary layer diffusion |
| 3. Evaluation of the new convection and PBL schemes |
| 3.1 Evaluation of the new convection scheme |
| 3.2 Necessity to improve the boundary layer diffusion scheme |
| 3.3 Evaluation of the GRAPES global modelperformance with the modified PBL and cumulus schemes |
| 4. Conclusions and discussion |
（7）Research Progress in China on the Tropical Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation（论文提纲范文）
| 1. Introduction |
| 2. Mechanisms of ISO/MJO |
| 3. Numerical simulation of ISO |
| 3.1 Impacts of the vertical distribution of di-abatic heating |
| 3.2 Impacts of latent heating in the boundary layer |
| 3.3 Impacts of cumulus momentum transport |
| 4. Relationship between the MJO and ENSO |
| 5. Influences of ISO on weather and climate |
| 5.1 ISO and TC genesis over the northwestern Pacific |
| 5.1.1 Impacts of MJO on TC genesis over the north-western Pacific |
| 5.1.2 Impacts of ISO on TC genesis over the north-westetrn Pacific |
| 5.2 ISO and TC tracks over the northwestern Pacific |
| 5.3 Impacts of ISO on the Asian summer monsoon |
| 5.3.1 ISO and the onset of the Asian summer mon-soon |
| 5.3.2 Impacts of ISO on the East Asian summer mon-soon |
| 5.3.3 Impacts of ISO on the Indian summer monsoonand precipitation over Yunnan Province,China |
| 5.4 The MJO and precipitation over China |
| 6. Conclusions |
（9）Impacts of Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation over China（论文提纲范文）
| 1. |
| Introduction 2. |
| Model, |
| data, |
| and |
| experimental |
| design 3. |
| Results 4. |
| Conclusions |
| and |
| discussion |
（10）Assessment of Dynamic Downscaling of the Extreme Rainfall over East Asia Using a Regional Climate Model（论文提纲范文）
| 1. Introduction |
| 2. Model, Data and Experiments |
| 2.1 Model description |
| 2.2 Summer 1998 heavy precipitation event in China |
| 2.3 Experimental design |
| 3.Circulation downscaling |
| 3.1 Reanalyses and control run simulation |
| 3.2 Impacts of physical parameterizations |
| 3.2.1 Convection schemes |
| 3.2.2 Land surface parameterizations |
| 3.3 Impacts of 10-day re-initialization and location of lateral boundaries (LLB) |
| 3.4 Discussion |
| 4. Precipitation downscaling |
| 4.1 Characteristics of June 1998 precipitation of observation, reanalyses, and the control run simulation |
| 4.2 Impacts of physical parameterizations |
| 4.3 Impacts of re-initialization and location of lateral boundaries |
| 4.4 DDM performance of monsoon evolution |
| 4.5 Seasonal simulation of precipitation |
| 5. Conclusion and summary |
四、MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT（论文参考文献）
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